Two more initiatives
qualified for the next statewide election yesterday, raising the stakes of a potential November special election. Qualifying were Lew Uhler's measure to
require unions to get their members' permission before using dues for political purposes and the
Citizens to Save California's measure to limit tenure for teachers. Together with the initiative to require parental notification before teens can obtain an abortion, the measures are now guaranteed to be on the (and cannot be rescinded from) the June 2006 ballot, unless the governor calls a special election, in which case they'd be before voters this year.
Now, the choice for labor and its allies is clear--
continue beating up the governor for the next five months and hope to defeat his measures
or cut a deal and have them on the June 2006 ballot when the voters minds may be more open to the governor's ideas.
But around the Capitol yesterday, there seemed to be a lot more positioning than negotiating going on.
The Chron says that is the governor backs out now,
he would alienate conservatives. "'If it doesn't happen, the governor has a credibility issue,' agreed
Jon Fleischman, a GOP campaign strategist and publisher of the Flashreport, a roundup on California politics. 'The soldiers are wanting to be deployed -- and if the governor calls the retreat, that demoralizes the soldiers.'"
Like that's ever been an issue with this governor.
Meanwhile, speculation about what a possible deal might look like persists. There's the option of placing the Democrats' $2 billion tax increase on the ballot. But that would have to be placed on the ballot by the Legislature, and Assembly Republican Leader
Kevin McCarthy told us yesterday that there is no way there would be the votes in his caucus necessary to place such a deal on the ballot.
And then, there's
the ever-present rumors of a term limits link to redistricting, which Dan Weintraub reprises today. Weintraub suggests that the governor would be wise to
look into changes to the state's term limits law, if "the governor could use such a carrot as an incentive to get some other good public policy done."
The change most often talked about in the Capitol is one Weintraub mentions. The change would actually shorten term limits from 14 to 12 years, but allow a member to serve those years in either house. So, for example, Speaker
Fabian Nuņez who was elected in 2002, could be speaker until 2014. Perata would still be termed out in 2008 (depending on how the deal was worded).
"Schwarzenegger knows that hardly anything is more important to legislators than term limits. After all, lawmakers needn't worry about much else if they cannot run again for re-election. So
the issue will always be in the governor's quiver as a potential closer if he and the Democrats ever get anywhere near to a deal."
Just asking: Why would termed-out Senators who have already served their 12 years go for such a proposal?
Speaking of term limits, Dan Walters writes up the
the effect of limits on congressional races, and how legislators are looking for a federal promotion much sooner, even if it means challenging incumbents from their own party. "Termed out of their Assembly careers next year, Democrats
Joe Nation of San Rafael and
Juan Vargas of San Diego have both indicated that they will run against their local Democratic congressional members, Lynn Woolsey and Bob Filner, in the June primary."
And, the most generous gift is an unexpected midterm vacancy, like the one that will be created if
Christopher Cox is confirmed as the President's pick for chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. "Cox would not resign from Congress until after Senate confirmation, and Gov.
Arnold Schwarzenegger would call a special election - one in which only Republicans need apply because of the overwhelming (nearly 2-1) GOP registration of Cox's wealthy coastal district."
Unless, of course, a dead man is running on the West Wing.
Assuming neither the dead guy nor Rob Lowe are running, we're back to the Republican horserace. Blogging radio host Eric Hogue has
this update:
"Former GOP Senator
John Lewis, who is very wealthy, is talking about entering the race and opening his account with a personal check for $1 million. ... If Lewis and [
Dick] Ackerman both decide to run, it WILL split the conservative vote and could throw the race to the moderate/liberal Republican,
Marilyn Brewer."
As the stem cell oversight board met in Sacramento, Senator
Deborah Ortiz "vowed Monday to press for a
quick vote on legislation that could delay selling a $3-billion bond to finance research."
"She pledged that if the Legislature's attorney or state bond attorneys tell her she is 'jeopardizing bonds, or my criteria and language is too vague and will encourage litigation, I will not move the measure forward.' ... 'I'm driven by that, but it has to be based on the attorneys I'm working with,' Ortiz said."
"'I don't know what her motivation is,' Caltech President [and oversight board member]
David Baltimore said, as he prepared to meet with legislators. "But I know the result is extremely dangerous and could undermine the whole reputation of the state as a leader in stem cell research.'"
So, Ahab...Can I bum my doobage? The
U.S. Supreme Court ruled yesterday that federal police must look to federal, not state, law on whether people may grow and consume marijuana for personal use. Medical marijuana advocates found themselves cursing
John Paul Stevens, who wrote the majority opinion, and praising dissenters
Sandra Day O'Connor,
William Rehnquist, and
Clarence Thomas.
Meanwhile,
Martin Ludlow appears ready to
give up his seat on the LA City Council to head up the County Federation of Labor. Among those interested in running for Ludlow's potentially vacant seat is former Speaker
Herb Wesson.
