Pundits and pros are avidly reading the tea leaves of Tuesday’s California election – the Reeps did well (all things considered, this is California), but is it the beginning of a California comeback for the Grand Old Party, or just a happy bump? And what about Top Two and Independent Redistricting and their impact? And then there’s the real question: who is Patty Lopez, the mystery candidate who appears to have unseated Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra while spending zero money on her campaign. Anthony York provides a heavy duty look at the election, and what it all means, man, at Capitol Weekly.
“The biggest surprise of the night was Democrat Raul Bocanegra’s struggles against a political unknown, Patty Lopez. Bocanegra, a prolific party fundraiser who was in line to become the next chairman of the Assembly Utilities Committee, was trailing as of Wednesday morning against Lopez, a community activist who spent literally no money on her campaign according to the Secretary of State’s Web site, and whose only campaign videos online are in Spanish.
“But Lopez is a Democrat, and under the new primary rules, she advanced to the fall runoff against Bocanegra by finishing second in the June primary. Under the old rules, Bocanegra would have been running against a Republican and sailed to reelection in his solidly Democratic San Fernando Valley district. Now, his fate will be determined by provisional ballots, lawyers, recounts and the like.”
And about that GOP comeback - Jessica Calefati and Josh Richman look at the possibilities in the Contra Costa Times.
“…[Observers] say exceeding expectations is a small victory unto itself for California Republicans, who have been losing ground here for two decades.
"’If the long-term goal is to rebuild the Republican Party as a viable party, this was a win for them,’ said Corey Cook, director of the University of San Francisco's Leo T. McCarthy Center for Public Service and the Common Good. ‘They got close, they did not damage their brand ... and they're building a bench.’"
Future GOP gubernatorial candidates can look to the 12 page letter Neel Kashkari released Wednesday detailing his difficulties campaigning as a largely unknown Republican in a huge – and hugely democratic - state. From David Siders at the Bee:
“Kashkari, 41, blamed much of his defeat on his inability to raise a sufficient amount of money, which he called ‘the hardest part of this campaign.’”
“’Developing substantive policies, dealing with the press, retail campaigning, and debating Jerry Brown were all straight-forward,’ Kashkari wrote ‘But I did not anticipate the fatigue major Republican donors felt after very well-funded defeats in 2010 and 2012.’”
Big spenders largely got their money’s worth on ballot props according to the numbers complied by Maplight, a nonprofit org that studies the effects of money in politics. Joe Garofoli has the story at SFGate, with the list of top 20 donors.
“Doctors and insurance companies (and a few stray tech execs) wrote the biggest checks in support of — or opposition to — the state ballot measures, and for the most part, they were rewarded with victories. Of the top 20 spenders on California ballot campaigns this year only one — the California Nurses Association — spent money on a losing campaign.
Unfortunately for billionaire Tom Steyer, Politico wrote the exact opposite story about his spending this cycle.
If you just can’t get enough chatter about the election and the implications, there will be plenty to follow at today’s 2014 Election Post-Mortem Conference, starting at 9AM. Over two dozen pols, pros and journalists (including Jim Brulte, Seema Mehta, Ace Smith, Aaron McLear, Mike Madrid, Angie Tate and more) will be on tap to interpret (and spin) the results. Capitol Weekly (and others) will be tweeting from the event starting at 9AM – hashtag: #CANOV4.
