Conventional wisdom

Just when you thought it was safe to talk about the state budget , the Merc's Denis Theriault has some good news, and some bad news.

"For now, buoyed by a resurgent stock market and other signs the recession is on its way out, the state's fragile revenue and spending projections ought to hold up until at least mid-January — and maybe even beyond, analysts and economists say.

"If true, it would mark the longest stretch in more than a year when deficit-slashing wasn't the topic du jour in Sacramento.

"As things stand now, this fall should not be a rerun of last fall," said H.D. Palmer, spokesman for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's Finance Department. "We don't want to see that miniseries again."

"Still, problems with the budget — taped up with accounting tricks and other one-time fixes — are probably due to hit after the first of the year. The nation's nascent economic recovery is expected to be slow. As Palmer put it, just because the budget won't need drastic new patching this fall "doesn't mean we're in the clover by any stretch of the imagination."

Well, what if we did some imagination yoga to stretch it a little further?

Jack Chang wraps up the weekend's GOP convention, and finds conservatives on the outs.

"All three of the party's gubernatorial candidates are pro-abortion rights social moderates who make only passing references to immigration, gay marriage, religion and other red-meat conservative social issues.

"One candidate, former Rep. Tom Campbell, was once registered as a Democrat and supports legalizing gay marriage, while the other two --  Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman, the former CEO of online auction firm eBay -- have contributed to Democratic candidates in the past.

"We're trying to find our way," McKearn said of conservatives. "We have no favorite candidate to go to." It's a dilemma that many conservative Republicans wrestled with this weekend as fiscal issues such as cutting taxes and government spending and streamlining business regulations rather than social causes dominated the discussion.

"Few speakers at the convention's dinners, workshops and news conferences brought up illegal immigration, although the topic was almost always one of the first cited at candidate question-and-answer sessions held with party activists. At one point Saturday, Poizner invoked Democratic President John F. Kennedy while trying to sell delegates on his plan to cut taxes to create jobs and grow state revenue."

Um, going for the Catholic vote, maybe?

Duane Gang reports, despite the candidates liberal bent, or perhaps because of it, the GOP is optimistic about 2010.

"California Republicans concluded their fall convention Sunday, energized about next year's gubernatorial election and determined to improve their lot across the state.

"Republicans this week will launch a renewed voter registration drive and hope to capitalize on President Barack Obama's slipping approval ratings to win state and federal offices in the 2010 elections."

Meanwhile, AP's Juliet WIlliams reports the GOP is setting its sights on Barbara Boxer.

"The Republican race to challenge liberal stalwart Barbara Boxer for her U.S. Senate seat next year is shaping up as a likely contest between a socially conservative state lawmaker and a former Silicon Valley chief executive whose views are barely known to GOP voters in the state.

"Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive and John McCain confidante, is not yet an official candidate, but she has registered a campaign committee, "Carly for California," and her team had a strong presence at this weekend's statewide party convention at a desert resort near Palm Spring.

Fiorina, who is in the final stages of treatment for breast cancer, did not attend.

"Her GOP rival, Assemblyman Chuck DeVore of Irvine, a military officer and businessman who has already spent months working to secure the party's base, told delegates Sunday that he is eager to have the competition, but now is not the time to go with a political neophyte.

The LAT focuses on the party's internal conflicts.

"The 2010 census is looming, heating up a debate among demographers and political prognosticators over how much California's population has grown, and therefore how large its congressional delegation will be.

"The Census Bureau estimates that California's population was 36.8 million in 2008. Based on that number, Polidata, a Virginia-based company that analyzes political numbers, projects that the 2010 census will peg California at 37.4 million, a 10.4 percent increase for the decade, and that its congressional delegation will remain unchanged.

"If Polidata is correct, California indeed would probably see no change in its congressional delegation. But there's a long-running dispute between the Census Bureau and demographers for the state Department of Finance over how many people actually reside in the state."

The Bee's Matt Weiser looks at rising crime rates in state parks . "There were 58,475 criminal incidents in California's 279 state parks in 2008, or an average of 160 every day, according to crime data obtained from the state Department of Parks and Recreation. The crime rate rose from 35 crimes per 100,000 visitors in 1999 to 75 last year."

Not to mention a vast increase in the number of pic-i-nic baskets reported stolen. But we digress...

"From simple trespassing to theft of artifacts, park crime has been raised as a leading concern as the state prepares to close more parks on weekdays – or for entire seasons – to address a budget crisis.

"State Parks Department officials blame the increase largely on urbanization pushing up against park borders. Other park advocates say years of tight budgets have left parks inadequately patrolled by rangers. As park use increased 20 percent in the past decade – to 79 million people – the number of rangers remained flat."

"Donald Fisher, who co-founded Gap Inc. with a single San Francisco blue jeans outlet in 1969 and turned it into a worldwide, 3,100-store casual-wear empire, died Sunday of cancer at his San Francisco home , the company said. He was 81.