The $28 billion mess

Nov 12, 2008

Welcome back.  There are still four races that are close, although there have been no lead changes while you've been honoring our veterans.  McClintock leads Brown by 908 votes...Hannah-Beth leads Tony by 1,203...Sieglock leads Huber by 614 votes...and, Prop 11 is leading by 152,285.

 

As of Monday evening, there were 1,198,864 absentees and 745,119 provisionals pending.

 

Back under the big white dome, the new legislative analyst had his first big budget roll-out with a lot of the same bad news. "California will face massive budget shortfalls through at least 2014 without immediate action by lawmakers and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Legislature's nonpartisan budget analyst said Tuesday.

"In the midst of high unemployment, shaky consumer confidence and plummeting investments, the state needs a slew of tax increases and spending cuts to resolve a $27.8 billion problem over the next 20 months, Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor said. Those budgetary actions also would help narrow annual deficits of about $22 billion in subsequent years.

"'The numbers are just truly awful,' Taylor said. 'It may be as dire a situation as I've seen in my time in the office. And as a result, we are recommending to our bosses it is just imperative that they act quickly and aggressively to address this problem.'

"Taylor's shortfall estimate of $27.8 billion is greater than the $24.2 billion figure the governor cited last week. But the legislative analyst said the governor's proposal, with its extensive cuts and tax increases, is reasonable and ambitious."


The summary, link to the report, and the scariest chart is on the California Budget Blog.

 

Meanwhile, the Republicans are still in "read my lips" mode, and the talking points on the Republican side of the aisle haven't changed, as evident in Matthew Yi's Chron story.

"'We have an economic problem that has severely compromised our tax revenue,' said Assemblyman Roger Niello, R-Fair Oaks (Sacramento County), vice chairman of the Assembly Budget Committee. 'To immediately talk about increasing tax rates and pile additional burden on an economy that's struggling to be productive is unproductive.'"

 

So when all else fails, what do California's leaders do? Simply fall to their knees, face East, and pray...


"Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, D-Baldwin Vista (Los Angeles County), called the state's looming deficit "shocking," adding that the federal government should help bail out states like California that face dire fiscal straits.

"'We can't let one of the world's largest economies go over the cliff,' she said."

 

For the record, New York City received a federal bailout loan in 1979 of $9.2 billion.  In 2008 dollars, that's $28.3 billion.  See, we can do this without any cuts and without tax increases!

 

In case you missed it, Michael Rothfeld and Tony Barboza reported Monday: "Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Sunday expressed hope that the California Supreme Court would overturn Proposition 8, the ballot initiative that outlawed same-sex marriage. He also predicted that the 18,000 gay and lesbian couples who have already wed would not see their marriages nullified by the initiative."

 

While it still may take California's voters another decade to change their opinion on gay marriage, it has only taken Schwarzenegger five years.

 

And, the Bee's Jennifer Garza reports that Proposition 8 supporters are upset that the Yes vote isn't being respected.

 

"'I'm frustrated by what's going on,' said Dave Leatherby, owner of the Leatherby Family Creamery in Sacramento, commenting on the protests and court battles.

"'Let's move on. I always told my children that once a rule was made, you have to abide by it. I think it should be the same in this circumstance.'"

 

As long as the rule is made by the voters and not judges interpreting California's constitution.

 

"'For them to say the voters have spoken and no one should question it is a bit disingenuous,' said West Sacramento Mayor Christopher Cabaldon. He cited repeated attempts to pass other initiatives. 'They believe in the justice of their causes, that's why they return over and over again with the same proposal on parental notification.'

"Cabaldon was referring to Proposition 4, which would have required parental notification before a minor could have an abortion. It was defeated for the third time last week."

 

Meanwhile, it's time to focus on 2010.  

 

 "The politician who appears to have the best chance at succeeding Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor in 2010, according to a statewide poll released today, isn't even a candidate in the race," writes Edwin Garcia in the Merc News.

"Longtime U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, is viewed favorably by 50 percent of California voters — a commanding 16 points higher than the next-closest contender, Attorney General Jerry Brown, in a field of nine potential candidates.

"Villaraigosa registered a 28 percent favorable rating among all voters, followed closely by Garamendi with 27 percent and Newsom with 25 percent. O'Connell, a low-key politician, barely registered at 10 percent.

"Among the Republican hopefuls: Whitman was viewed favorably by 17 percent of all voters, former Rep. Tom Campbell was seen favorably by 14 percent, and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner registered a favorable impression among just 10 percent of voters."

 

Here's the poll.

 

"Republican Assemblyman Chuck Devore of Irvine said Tuesday that he will challenge U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer in the 2010 election and plans to borrow a page from President-elect Barack Obama's fundraising playbook in his long shot attempt to unseat her," reports Patrick McGreevy in the Times.

"Devore said he would announce his intentions in a live webcast today. He plans to use the Internet to build a nationwide base of financial supporters, including many able only to give small amounts, a technique Obama showed can be highly successful.

"'I'm going to shamelessly copy the mechanics of it,' said Devore, who was elected to the state Legislature four years ago to represent a large area of Orange County. 'If it works for him, it makes sense to see if it works for me.'" 

 

And, San Francisco D.A. Kamala Harris is exploring a run for attorney general.

"The 44-year-old Harris - whose biracial background makes her both the state's first female African American district attorney and the nation's first Indian American district attorney - will announce this morning that she is ready to make a run for California attorney general, the top law enforcement officer in the nation's most populous state.

"To be sure, (Obama) has excited a whole new generation of voters - and ... they span all ages and categories," Harris said in a phone interview. "But they're an excited group of people who are feeling good about the country, and they want to be involved in it - and those are the people I want to talk to."

As Harris moves to shape her own political future, other state Democratic officeholders are considering new posts and campaigns. 

 

"California's prison medical czar tried to sell his $8 billion construction plan Tuesday as providing a much-needed financial jolt for a struggling state economy," reports Andy Furillo in the Bee.

"At the same time, federal receiver J. Clark Kelso said he's willing to "step back" to examine the scale of his project.

"Kelso made his comments at a press conference called in part to rebut an internal Corrections Department document leaked to The Bee two weeks ago that criticized his remedial plan as carrying $2.3 billion in annual operations costs.

"The receiver has asked state lawmakers to give him $7 billion to build seven, 1,500-bed long-term care facilities for inmates to help resolve four separate federal class-action lawsuits. He's also asking for another $1 billion to improve health facilities at the state's 33 prisons."

 

And finally, from our Beyond the Grave Files, the AP reports, "A woman has died on the way to a cemetery when a traffic accident hurled her husband's coffin against the back of her neck.

 

"Police said 67-year-old Marciana Silva Barcelos was in the front passenger seat of the hearse when the accident occurred Monday in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul.

 

"Barcelos died instantly."


 
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