Numbers game

"A majority of California voters oppose Proposition 8, a ballot initiative that would ban same-sex marriage in the state, but a new statewide poll shows that the gap has narrowed in the past month," reports John Wildermuth in the Chron.

"While Prop. 8 is losing with 44 percent in favor to 52 percent opposed among likely voters in the survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, opponents of the measure had a cushion of 14 percentage points, 41 to 55 percent, in a poll by the same group last month."
 
Proposition 4
46% yes
44 no
10 don’t know

Proposition 8
44% yes  
52 no
4 don’t know

Get the full poll...

Capitol Weekly offers it's breakdown of all 12 measures on the November ballot here.

 
"California Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres is hoping the wave of Democratic voter registration and a Barack Obama victory could give his Dems a veto-proof majority in the Assembly and Senate," reports the Bee's Dan Smith.

"'We may have the potential to gain two-thirds of the Legislature this year,' Torres told the Sacramento Press Club today in a joint appearance with state GOP chairman Ron Nehring.

Wow, Art. Talk about setting the bar a little high for Karen Bass this fall. 50 seats we could understand, maybe even 51. But 54? Really? 

"Torres was hard-pressed to say just how the 48 Democrat-held Assembly seats will grow to 54 or how the 25 Democratic Senate seats will become 27 after Nov. 4.

"He mentioned Democratic hopes of picking up Republican-held seats in the 80th District in the Palm Springs area, the 78th in San Diego and the 15th in the East Bay-Elk Grove area.

"(Party adviser Bob Mulholland later added two more: the 10th in Sacramento-San Joaquin and the 26th in Modesto).

Ok, 20 that would be 52, if they hold Nicole Parra's seat in the 30th AD...

"On the Senate side, the Democratic hopes focus on the Ventura County seat now held by termed-out Republican Tom McClintock.

"None of that adds up to 54 and 27, of course, and Nehring said Torres' boast 'just doesn't pencil out.'"

John Howard reports Democrats are encouraged in part by results from early absentee voting.

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Brad Buyse, of the Sacramento County registrar of voters, who said the current county registration surpasses the 2004 presidential election numbers. He noted that the latest numbers, about 661,000 registered voters in the county, are not complete – they will not be available until Monday at the earliest. But a new record already has been set. “And we are projecting a 14 to 20 percent increase above that.”  More than four in 10 voters cast ballots by mail, and that percentage is likely to increase, too."

CW's Malcolm Maclachlan looks at the race in the 10th AD , where Democrats are hoping to pick up one of those seats.  

"Assembly District 10 pits Huber, a 36 year-old Democrat who has never held elected office, against former Lodi mayor Jack Sieglock, whose political career began when she was 10 years old. Huber beat out an under-funded Jim Cook, the 2006 Democratic nominee. Cook was clobbered by incumbent Alan Nakanishi (R-Lodi) by a 27 point margin in 2006. Sieglock survived a larger field of more established candidates, including Rancho Cordova City Councilman David Sander and Paul Hegyi, chief of staff to Assemblyman Van Tran (R-Costa Mesa).

"In recent weeks, $600,000 in independent expenditures have poured in on behalf of Huber from SEIU Local 1000, PORAC and other groups. Sieglock has benefited from only $50,000 in IE money, from the California Medical Association, spent a pair of mailers."

The assets of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, buffeted by the volatility on Wall Street, have declined by about 20 percent since the summer and are down some $70 billion over the past year," reports Capitol Weekly's John Howard. "Officials at CalPERS, the nation’s largest public pension fund, said retirees’ benefits are protected by law and will not be affected by the downturn.

"But there is a possibility that the fund, in order to deal with the losses, will need to raise the employers' contributions by 2 percent to 4 percent within the next 18 months. That means the government agencies for whom CalPERS members work--funded by  taxpayers--could be required to boost their contributions.

"On Monday, CalPERS’ assets were  put at about $192.7 billion. At the end of June, the fund’s assets stood at $239.2 billion. On Oct. 31, 2007, CalPERS’ reported its assets at $260.4 billion – the fund’s high-water mark."

 "In a unique move intended to expand the pool of poll workers and polling sites, the Orange County registrar of voters Wednesday announced a "corporate sponsorship" deal with Wells Fargo," writes Susannah Rosenblatt in the Times.

"Under the agreement, the bank will provide employees to be trained as poll workers to man the ballot boxes Nov. 4. Vote-by-mail paperwork is available at Orange County Wells Fargo branches, and banks can be used as polling sites in future elections.

"There was no money exchanged, Orange County Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley said. And the bank won't be drumming up business outside voting booths.

"'The poll site is a sanctuary of sorts. It's a place that is completely neutral: There's no promotion, there's no advertising, nothing,' Kelley said. 'The goal of the program is to recruit poll workers -- not to brand a stadium.'

"In exchange for volunteers, the San Francisco-based bank can use the Orange County seal on its literature and website, and advertise its association with the county registrar -- after the election, Kelley said. Strictly forbidden, Kelley said, is any Wells Fargo advertising. Voters should have no idea if volunteers are affiliated with the bank."

And, we look at yesterday's top cash drawers, courtesy of ElectionTrack.

No On 8 - Equality California: $663,000

Yes On Prop. 2: $543,500

Strickland For Senate: $203,600

Friends Of Hannah Beth Jackson 2008: $159,467

Californians For High Speed Trains-yes On Proposition 1A: $150,000

Lois Wolk For Senate '08: $139,141

California Republican Party / Victory 2006: $121,100

Los Angeles County Democratic Party-issues And Advocacy Committee: $120,000

Campaign For Teen Safety - No On 4: $100,190

People Against The Proposition 5 Deception: $99,300

And finally, a memo to all you school bus drivers out there: If you're going to drive after drinking a beer, at least drop off the last kid on your route first. 

"A bus driver taking children home from Bergen Catholic High School in New Jersey was arrested yesterday after, police said, he stopped at a local ShopRite supermarket, downed a beer and continued driving with one child still aboard.

"Witnesses at the store told police that they saw James Pruitt, 43, of Spring Valley buy a beer and head back onto his bus after drinking it.

"

An onlooker called police at 2:45 p.m. Four police cruisers stopped the bus on Railroad Avenue - about a half-mile from ShopRite."

Tattle tales.