And the winner is...Survey USA!
With dueling polls predicting large victories in California for both
Barack Obama and
Hillary Clinton yesterday, supporters of each candidate were fairly confident going into last night.
In the end, it looks like Survey USA
predicted it closest (Clinton: 52%, Obama 42%), while Zogby
missed the mark (Obama: 49%, Clinton 36%).
With 95.4% of precincts reporting, Clinton
leads Obama 51.9% to 42.4%. While Obama has closed Clinton's initial 24% absentee ballot lead throughout the night, the counties still being counted (Riverside, San Bernardino) are both currently favoring Clinton by large margins.
What does it all mean? California didn't make or break anyone in the Democratic Primary, and Clinton will likely emerge with between 15-20 more of the 371 delegates than Obama from the Golden State. Nationally, Obama will is expected to trail Clinton by about 100 delegates of the 2,025 needed to win.
The next week should be kind to Obama, with
primaries in Maryland, Washington DC and Virginia. Washington state, Louisiana, Nebraska and Maine also have contests this week.
For those of you trying to figure out the national delegate math, RealClearPolitics.com has a great running tally
here.
Meanwhile, the Golden State helped propel
John McCain to a lead that just may be commanding enough to clear the field. With 95.4% reporting, McCain edged
Mitt Romney 42.1% to 33.8%, and the outstanding counties largely mirror the statewide results.
On to ballot measures (95.4% reporting):
Proposition 91:Yes: 41.9%
No: 58.1%
Proposition 92:Yes: 42.6%
No: 57.4%
Proposition 93:Yes: 46.6%
No: 53.4%
Proposition 94:Yes: 55.9%
No: 44.2%
Proposition 95:Yes: 56.0%
No: 44.2%
Proposition 96:Yes: 55.7%
No: 44.3%
Proposition 97:Yes: 55.7%
No: 44.3%
Supporters of Proposition 92,
the community college initiative can be happy with only one result from the evening--edging out the abandoned transportation measure, but barely.
With term limits reform apparently going down,
Don Perata was able to deliver Alameda County but
Fabian Nunez lost Los Angeles County. But, don't expect the leaders to step down quickly.
The Bee's Jim Sanders
reports: "Behind the scenes, colleagues had been watching Proposition 93 closely and some had jockeyed for position -- more openly in the Senate -- to succeed Nunez and Perata if the measure died.
"The two legislative leaders had made it clear, however, that they do not intend to step down immediately, regardless of Tuesday's outcome."
So now, the question becomes,
what happens next?The answer? Hit the slots!
"After one of the most expensive ballot fights in California history, Indian
gambling measures that will bring the next big wave of casino expansion appeared headed to decisive victories Tuesday," reports Jim Sweeney in the Union Tribune.
"Voters were approving Propositions 94, 95, 96 and 97, initiatives to ratify gaming agreements for four of the state's wealthiest and most powerful tribes -- Sycuan of El Cajon, Pechanga of Temecula, Morongo of Banning and Agua Caliente of Palm Springs."
Must have been one heck of a party at the Biltmore last night.
Dan Walters writes that California
may be competitive for the Republicans in November.
"A poll of likely California voters by Field Research found that McCain was virtually tied with Clinton in a hypothetical matchup while Obama, thanks largely to his broader appeal, held a seven-point lead over McCain.
"Were McCain to win the GOP nomination, therefore, it could put California in play. The Democratic candidate, either Clinton or Obama, would still be favored but could no longer take the state for granted. Without California's 55 electoral votes, Democratic hopes for recapturing the White House are slender, so at the very least, Democrats would have to devote resources to California."
"Voters in four Southern California counties
gave a warm reception to an array of local tax measures, preserving a handful of telephone utility taxes and giving the edge to half a dozen school construction bonds, according to nearly complete precinct tallies early today," writes David Zahniser in the Times.
"With Tuesday's voter turnout buoyed by the presidential primary campaign,
the city of Los Angeles saw Proposition S, a $243-million telephone tax seen as the last defense against a faltering economy, winning by nearly 2 to 1, with most of the precinct votes counted. And 3 of every 4 voters were in favor of a facilities bond measure for the Long Beach Community College District.
"Three other cities in addition to Los Angeles had placed telephone taxes on the ballot in an attempt to make them invulnerable to a legal challenge. With roughly three-fourths of the ballots counted, Huntington Park voters were overwhelmingly supporting Measure B, a communications users tax that was seeing approval from 4 out of 5 voters. And Measure D, a telephone tax in Pasadena that would generate $10 million annually, was passing by a substantial margin, with most of the precinct votes counted."
Just wondering...how much of a telephone tax would be required to close the state's budget shortfall?
