Hypotheticals

Oct 30, 2007
The Merc News's Mike Zapler looks at the Field Poll's matchup of Schwarzenegger v. Boxer.

"It's a political throw-down that probably will never happen (never say never), but that's not about to stop political junkies from speculating (OK, dreaming): Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Hollywood star-turned GOP governor and global-warming crusader, taking on Sen. Barbara Boxer, the scrappy, liberal, three-term Democrat.

"And what a race it would be. A California Field poll of registered voters released today shows the two heavyweights in a virtual tie in a hypothetical 2010 Senate election - 44 percent for Schwarzenegger, 43 percent for Boxer, well within the margin of error.

"'It would be a fabulous battle royale,' said GOP consultant Rob Stutzman, the governor's former communications director, 'and poll numbers like these just feed the parlor game.'

"The Boxer-Schwarzenegger hype is a product of political timing. The senator is up for re-election in 2010, just when the governor will be finishing his second and final term. The U.S. Senate might seem like a natural next stop for the notoriously ambitious Schwarzenegger, who can't run for President because he was born outside the United States."

Would the guv want to be 1/100?

"But would Schwarzenegger run? The conventional wisdom leans decidedly toward no. More likely possibilities, some observers guess, might be a run for mayor of Los Angeles (a la former Gov. Jerry Brown, who went on to be Oakland mayor); doing environmental advocacy work (think Al Gore); becoming a Cabinet secretary in a Republican or Democratic administration; or perhaps returning to Hollywood as a producer or director."

Bloomberg's Edward Robinson looks at how Schwarzenegger became The Green Governor.

"He was spending the weekend at the Kennedy compound in Hyannis Port, Massachusetts, with his wife, Maria Shriver, a member of late President John F. Kennedy's clan. After dinner, Schwarzenegger discussed his nascent environmental ideas with Robert Kennedy Jr., Shriver's cousin and an outspoken environmentalist. Kennedy put Schwarzenegger in touch with Terry Tamminen, founder of Santa Monica Baykeeper, a group that combats water pollution in Southern California.

"Tamminen was skeptical. He'd raised money for Vice President Al Gore's White House run in 2000 and was critical of the Republican record -- especially the Bush administration's rejection in 2001 of the United Nations' Kyoto Protocol to curb greenhouse gases. Now Schwarzenegger, 60, a Hummer-driving Republican, was asking a tree-hugging Democrat for advice."

In the article, FTCR's Jamie Court cites the governor's global warming crusade as opportunistic.

"A measure on the Feb. 5 ballot to alter term limits for California lawmakers may inadvertently open the door for dozens of termed-out Assembly members to return to their old seats in Sacramento, according to independent legal experts," writes Shane Goldmacher in the Bee.

"The 2008 ballot measure, known as Proposition 93, would reduce the number of years a lawmaker could serve in the Capitol from 14 to 12, while allowing incumbent lawmakers at least one extra term.

"If the measure passes, all 12 years could be served in one house of the Legislature – rather than the current maximum of six in the Assembly and eight in the Senate.

"The proponents, led by Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez, say the measure applies only to sitting and future lawmakers.

"But several election-law specialists contacted by The Bee disagreed.

"'I don't see any basis for saying a person who has previously served six years is precluded from serving another six years,' said Daniel Lowenstein, an election law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who helped write the state's Political Reform Act in the 1970s. 'It is quite clear.'"

The most likely candidate to attempt to return is Joe Canciamilla, who is running for state senate, but may instead consider a return to the Assembly.

"But Roy Behr, a Santa Monica-based political consultant who advised Boxer in her 1998 and 2004 re-election campaigns, said the early numbers are 'a great sign of strength' for Boxer."

The Bee's Andy Furillo looks at why SEIU Local 1000 critics are having more success in organizing against "fair share fees" than they did seven years ago.

"It all comes down to a little thing that wasn't a big part of the equation in 2000 – e-mail. In a unit where information technology and administrative and financial services make up the bulk of the work force, the campaign's supporters are banking on electronic access to the membership to turn the effort in their favor.

"'Last time, it was done by a group of people that did not have Internet access to the rank-and-file,' said Lyle Hintz, the retired state worker who organized the petition campaign to stop Service Employees International Union Local 1000 from collecting the fees. 'This time, we have Internet access to the workplaces, and we've gotten a really high response.'"

In other words, state employees are spending lots of time on e-mail, debating whether to pay dues to their union or not. Think about that the next time you're waiting in line at the DMV.

"If the measure passes, the union that represents a total of 87,000 workers across the state stands to lose an estimated $12.5 million in fair share fees paid by the nonunion members who make up about a third of Unit One employees. The bargaining unit is comprised mostly of administrative, financial and information technology workers, some of the highest-paid rank-and-file employees in state service. SEIU 1000's total revenue base last year was $44 million."

The LAT's Tony Perry reports that San Diego mayor Jerry Sanders is being compared to Rudy Giuliani for his crisis management during the fires.

"It's been a rough two years for Mayor Jerry Sanders, the cop-turned-politician elected in the middle of the city's biggest financial debacle. He has jumped from one controversy to another while clashing with the city attorney and struggling to balance the city's books without a tax increase or massive layoffs.

"But his crisis management during the recent fires, which has won him a chorus of positive reviews, may serve him well in next year's reelection campaign.

"At multiple news conferences last week -- nearly all of which were televised live -- Sanders urged people to remain calm and follow evacuation orders. As he raced from location to location, providing assurance and briefing the public, his message was constant: We're all in this together, no one is alone."

The praise, however is qualified. Like Giuliani's New York, critics argue that San Diego was underprepared for the fire calamity, which amplified the appearance of his leadership.

While a new GOP star rises, another appears to be falling. "Orange County Sheriff Mike Carona has been indicted on federal corruption charges stemming from a lengthy investigation into allegations that he had misused his office for financial gain, law enforcement officials said Monday," report Christine Hanley, H.G. Reza and Paul Pringle in the Times.

"The indictment, filed under seal, is expected to be made public soon, perhaps as early as today, officials said.

"A one-time close friend of Carona, former Assistant Sheriff George Jaramillo, already has pleaded guilty in the case, his attorney confirmed Monday. In the plea, Jaramillo admitted that he had collected cash and gifts worth about $45,000 and had filed false income tax returns concealing the income."

Finally, from our Muscular, Wealthy, Endowed SWPM Seeking Spring Chicken Files: "A northern Chinese city has banned the use of "seductive" words like "foxy lady", "handsome guy" and "moneybags" in marriage advertisements in a bid to stamp out fraud, domestic media reported on Tuesday."

M4W Craigslist postings from the town have reportedly dropped to zero.

"Many Chinese people still go to marriage brokers to arrange suitable life partners for their children, and often turn to adverts carried in newspapers, magazines and on the Internet.

"But after a series of complaints from people who said they had been cheated -- although how was not explained -- Henan provincial capital Zhengzhou is reining in the industry, the Beijing News said.

"From November 1, marriage brokers will need to have the content of their adverts approved by the city government and risk being banned for life if they snub the new rules, it added."

 
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