18-point gap

Oct 26, 2006

"Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is leading state Treasurer Phil Angelides nearly everywhere in the state, including the heavily Democratic San Francisco Bay area, according to a poll that gives him an 18-point advantage statewide," reports the AP's Laura Kurtzman.

Here's the poll.

"The spread is ominous for Angelides, who has been unable to consolidate his Democratic base as the Nov. 7 election draws near. Since winning the June primary, Angelides has lost support and trails Schwarzenegger 30 percent to 48 percent among likely voters. according to the Public Policy Institute of California survey released Wednesday."

"Angelides said the dynamics of the race would change when Democrats "came home" and said his support was driven down by millions of dollars in negative advertising from Schwarzenegger and the state Republican Party."

"'We're working against a tidal wave of corporate special interest money,' he said Wednesday at a rally with firefighters in Sacramento. 'There's no mystery here.'"

"But Schwarzenegger strategist Matthew Dowd said that in the last six weeks, Angelides and the Democrats had outspent the governor on television advertising and that the numbers in the race had hardly changed."

The poll also looked at the bonds:

Prop. 1B (Transportation-$19.9b)
Yes: 51%
No: 38%
Prop. 1C (Housing-$2.8b)
Yes: 56%
No: 34%
Prop. 1D (Education-$10.4b)
Yes: 51%
No: 39%
Prop. 1E (Levees/Flood-$4.09b)
Yes: 53%
No: 36%
Prop. 84 (Water/Parks-$5.4b)
Yes: 42%
No: 43%

Daniel Weintraub looks at the poll results. "Only 57 percent of the Democrats polled said they were supporting Angelides, while 21 percent were for Schwarzenegger. Among Republicans, Schwarzenegger leads 86 percent to 4 percent. Independents are siding with the governor by 43 percent to 24 percent.

"'It's just incredible to me,' [poll director Mark] Baldassare said of Angelides' failure to break through with his fellow partisans. 'For many of the Democrats, he has not been able to get his message out about what his vision is for leadership, and how he plans to lead in a different manner or provide a different plan for the state.'"

"Schwarzenegger now leads Angelides among men (53 percent to 26 percent) and women (44 percent to 34 percent). The governor leads among white voters (56 percent to 23 percent) while Angelides leads among Latinos (52 percent to 25 percent)."

"Angelides holds a narrow lead of 40 percent to 38 percent in Los Angeles County, which is normally solid for Democrats. But the governor leads his challenger in the Central Valley (56 percent to 23 percent), Southern California outside Los Angeles (63 percent to 21 percent) and even the San Francisco Bay Area (40 percent to 34 percent)."

The Merc News's Edwin Garcia talks to strategists about why Angelides can't get through to voters. "The campaign, according to several people with inside knowledge, has been hampered by an inconsistent strategy that was unprepared for Schwarzenegger's shift to the political center, an inability to make Angelides empathize with average voters, and the candidate's extreme desire to get involved in campaign minutiae -- to the point of insisting on whether briefing memos be stapled or paper clipped."

"'Phil's having a very difficult time breaking through to the voters,' said Larry Lyttle a former consultant to the campaign. 'And the sad part about it is, he's got good politics. He truly cares about people. He's a real good Californian, and he's very consistent in his ideology.'"

"'Schwarzenegger has systematically taken issues from the table that were legs under Angelides' election strategy,' said former Angelides campaign consultant Craig Schirmer, 'and in doing so, strangled Phil's ability to prosecute his case.'"

"'They've developed this schizophrenic approach to campaigning,' said Dave Rand, an attorney and former aide to then-Gov. Gray Davis. 'They're throwing everything and anything against the wall in an effort to get something to stick.'"

Angelides campaign manager Cathy "Calfo says Angelides has maintained a clear message: 'Arnold Schwarzenegger is a Bush Republican who's on the side of the special interests, not on your side. And I think we've been very consistent all the way through.'"

CW's John Howard reports that some of the inmates set to be shipped out of state will be going to private prisons.

The Chron's Tom Chorneau writes that, while health care is a top issue of most voters, it's not getting much attention in the gubernatorial campaign. "Health care is one of the biggest problems facing the state, with more than 6.5 million Californians uninsured and those that are covered struggling to keep pace with increasing costs."

"Both candidates have recognized the looming crisis and acknowledged that more should be done on the state level because efforts in Congress to address the issue are clearly at a standstill. But neither Schwarzenegger, whose record on health care is mixed, nor state Treasurer Angelides, whose record is still developing, have made health care a priority of the campaign."

The Bee's Judy Lin looks at Proposition 88. A "group of educators, business leaders and philanthropists is pushing what they say is a modest and realistic solution for California's K-12 educational system: a $50 annual tax on every parcel of property in the state."

"The parcel tax, also known as Proposition 88 on the Nov. 7 ballot, would generate an estimated $450 million each year for additional public school funding. That money, supporters say, would go directly to school districts for class reduction, textbooks, school safety programs, facility grants and data systems."

"The ballot measure, however, has failed to muster support from even the most likely of school boosters: parents and educators."

"'We want a grand plan and (to) build a case with the public,' said Karen Stapf-Walters, assistant executive director of the Association of California School Administrators, which opposes the measure."

"Even two Silicon Valley millionaires who put in nearly $7 million to qualify the initiative have since stopped giving."

"Sensing a high anti-tax sentiment among voters, a political consultant advised Netflix founder Reed Hastings and venture capitalist John Doerr to fight another day."

"The concern was that by just going after $50, we know we weren't going to reach that goal."

Herbert Sample writes that Jerry Brown seems to be campaigning more as an ally of Schwarzenegger than as on the ticket with Angelides. "'You're going to have an attorney general who's ... going to protect our environment, work with Arnold Schwarzenegger or, uh, Phil Angelides, whoever it is, and take these very difficult laws that have some gray areas in them and are going to be fought by industry,' Brown said during a recent debate sponsored by the San Francisco Chronicle."

"Brown's campaign consultant said the tactic is not a slap at Angelides; it simply demonstrates how far to the right Brown believes Poochigian's views are."

What about the separate victory parties, Jerry? Is that a slap at Phil?

"But political analysts said Brown's penchant for citing Schwarzenegger is indicative of how political boundaries get fuzzy when a Republican gubernatorial candidate is performing strongly -- recent polls show Schwarzenegger leading by as much as 10 points -- in an otherwise Democratic state."

"With separate million-dollar infusions, a group of casino-owning Southern California Indian tribes and the software company Intuit are changing the complexion of the race for California state controller. In the process, they are underscoring the power of the post, which has vast sway over state tax policy," writes Dan Morain in the Times.

"Using separate campaign accounts that are unfettered by contribution caps, the tribes and Intuit have aligned themselves with Republican Tony Strickland, a former assemblyman from Thousand Oaks who is running against Democrat John Chiang, a lawyer and member of the State Board of Equalization."

"'One group in one day can outspend what the candidates themselves have raised in an entire campaign,' Chiang campaign manger Parke Skelton said Wednesday."

"In recent days, Intuit has placed $1 million into a committee called the Alliance for California's Tomorrow. That group has spent $66,000 on Strickland's behalf so far."

"Tribes, operating through a committee called Team 2006, have spent $958,000 for Strickland, paying for television ads touting the Republicans as fiscally responsible and opposed to taxes."

Clea Benson sits down with John Chiang to get a response to the IEs against him. "'There's a clear contrast between me and my opponent and some of the advocates that are assisting an effort to defeat me or support (Strickland),' Chiang said during a breakfast meeting with The Bee's Capitol Bureau."

"The controller's job entails auditing state expenditures and distributing state funds. The controller also serves on the state tax boards."

"Chiang said Intuit has opposed some of his efforts as a member of the tax panel to make it easier for Californians to file taxes online."

"The tribes, Chiang said, may be angry at Democrats generally for blocking expansions of tribal gambling at the end of the last legislative session. Unions were opposed to the deals because they wanted stronger protections for casino workers."