Rising tide

Nov 2, 2005

The Los Angeles Times is out with its first and last special election poll today, which largely confirms the numbers released by Field yesterday. Here are the numbers among likely voters, after they have heard the official ballot summary.

Los Angeles Times
Proposition 74 - Tenure
Yes: 45%
No: 47%

Proposition 75 - Union Dues
Yes: 40%
No: 51%

Proposition 76 - Budget Control
Yes: 31%
No: 60%

Proposition 77 - Redistricting
Yes: 34%
No: 56%

In next year's gubernatorial match-up, both Phil Angelides (37%) and Steve Westly (38%) slightly outpoll the governor, who would receive 34% and 33% against the respective challengers.

Michael Finnegan is given the job of summarizing the results. "Beyond the ballot contests, the poll confirmed a steep dive in Schwarzenegger's popularity. His 69% job approval rating a year ago has plummeted to 40%. He remains popular with Republicans, but his support among Democrats has all but collapsed."

"Like President Bush, another Republican with scant support beyond his party base, Schwarzenegger has polarized Californians, the poll found, with voters split starkly along party and ideological lines. Across the voter spectrum, his ratings are roughly in sync with Bush's."

However, the poll finds, there are still some voters left to woo. Or as they call it in the polling industry, there is a cover your butt clause included in the analysis.

"Despite the bleak results for Schwarzenegger, the poll found voter opinion on his ballot measures less than solid, heightening the possibility of wide shifts in the campaign's final days. When read only the title of each initiative, more than one in five likely voters were undecided or had not heard enough to make up their minds. It was only after being read the full ballot description of each measure — a traditional polling technique — that many took a stand."

The Field Poll releases its remaining ballot measure results today, finding that voters are moving to the "no" side of Propositions 73, 78 and 79.

In the final sample (taken October 25 through 30), among likely voters the results are:

Field Poll
Proposition 73 - Abortion
Yes: 41%
No: 49%

Proposition 78 - Pharmaceutical Drugs - Industry
Yes: 36%
No: 45%

Proposition 79 - Pharmaceutical Drugs - Consumer/Labor
Yes: 37%
No: 43%

Greg Lucas talks to the pollster in the Chron. "'Some observers are trying to read into the numbers that it's one big across-the-board 'no' vote,' said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. 'It isn't.'"

"Some voters are opposed to the four government shakeup initiatives Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is promoting, but the three are trailing for entirely different reasons, DiCamillo said."

(Not one to be deterred by bad poll numbers, Steve Poizner dumped another $1 million into the Yes on 77 effort.)

Proponents of the governor's initiatives, however, continue to talk up the results of alternative polls, including Survey USA's and a poll by Stanford University/Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks, which released a new poll Monday. The poll is taken by a predetermined random sample of adults who take the poll on the Internet.

"Of the 1,616 adults invited to participate in the survey, 803 (50%) completed the survey in time for inclusion in the analysis. Of these cases, 585 (73%) were randomly assigned to the condition of receiving the ballot questions. Of these 585 cases, 378 (65%) reported that they definitely intend to vote. The analyses presented in this report are based on the interviews with these 378 respondents."

Stanford University/Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks
Proposition 73 - Abortion
Yes: 58%
No: 42%

Proposition 74 - Tenure
Yes: 53%
No: 47%

Proposition 75 - Union Dues
Yes: 64%
No: 36%

Proposition 76 - Budget Control
Yes: 45%
No: 55%

Proposition 77 - Redistricting
Yes: 55%
No: 45%

Proposition 78 - Pharmaceutical Drugs - Industry
Yes: 51%
No: 49%

Proposition 79 - Pharmaceutical Drugs - Consumer/Labor
Yes: 50%
No: 50%

Proposition 80 - Electricity Regulation
Yes: 46%
No: 54%

The poll requires people to vote yes or no, and does not give an undecided choice.

Meanwhile, Warren Beatty is busying himself cutting new radio spots, urging voters to vote against the governor's agenda. "Don't give him more power," Beatty says in the 60-second advertisement. The AP points out that Beatty wrote the ad himself!

Color us impressed.

John Wildermuth was given the green eyeshade job and finds that $300 million "will be spent on Tuesday's special election."

"'It's an unprecedented amount of money that violates the intent of all the campaign spending laws,' said Joe Cerrell, a longtime Democratic consultant. 'It's just crazy.'"

"'The only silver lining to the spending is that it isn't all one-sided," said Bob Stern, a campaign finance expert who heads the Center for Governmental Studies in Los Angeles. 'In most of the initiatives, both sides have enough money to get their story in front of the public.'"

The Chron's Victoria Colliver writes that the $80 million collected by the pharmaceutical companies to pass Proposition 78 and defeat Proposition 79 is the "most ever raised for a ballot issue in California."

"Dr. Jack Lewin, chief executive of the group, said he leans in favor of Prop. 78, in part out of the fear drugmakers could raise their prices in retaliation if Prop. 79 passes. But money was a big reason behind the association's decision to endorse neither measure."

"'We could buy an awful lot of drugs for the money being spent on this campaign," he said. 'Both of them are likely to fail because of public confusion.'"

From our For What It's Worth Files: At a time when Californians are considering a spending limit, Colorado has repealed theirs. "Fiscal conservatives were dismayed at the outcome Tuesday night and worried about its impact on other states considering similar spending limits."

"But supporters said Colorado couldn't afford to vote no, not with higher education, health care and transportation already suffering from millions of dollars in budget cuts."

"'It means we can join 49 other states recovering from the recession, we can make up some of the cuts,' said Republican Gov. Bill Owens, who stunned his own party by joining Democrats in crafting the ballot measure."

The Chronicle and the Bee both report on an internal battle inside Knight-Ridder, with the company's largest shareholder calling for the company to be sold.

"Private Capital Management, a Florida investment firm that owns 19 percent of Knight Ridder, the nation's second-largest newspaper chain, wrote a letter Tuesday to the board calling on it "to aggressively pursue the competitive sale of the company."

Knight-Ridder publishes the San Jose Mercury News and the Contra Costa Times.

Finally, from our Your Tax Dollars at Work Files, beach-goers in Malibu are being warned to never try to surf a tsunami, part of a government safety awareness campaign. "The pamphlets, part of an emergency preparedness campaign, inform residents of Malibu that tsunamis often follow large earthquakes and advise: "NEVER GO TO THE BEACH TO WATCH FOR, OR SURF, A TSUNAMI WAVE!"

"Malibu's emergency preparedness director said he thought it would be prudent to address all possibilities. 'Some people may feel that we are stating the obvious and some people may not,' Brad Davis said. 'We want to encourage people to move away from the coast rather than toward it.'"