The decennial redrawing of political districts is a nail-biter for politicians and this time around it's especially tense: The latest legislative and congressional districts are being drawn up by an independent commission instead of the Legislature. The maps will be released Friday and the tension in the Capitol -- and around the state -- is building. Political reporters are getting a little tense, too.
From Tony Quinn, writing in Fox & Hounds: "These appear to be good plans for several reasons. First, it is clear the Commission and staff listened to the community input they received. What different areas said they wanted are reflected in many of the new maps."
"Second, they said they would not use political data and they did not. The maps are balanced in partisan terms; both parties have reason to be pleased and displeased. There is no partisan advantage in these first maps. And the maps draw a remarkable number of politically marginal districts. Naysayers criticized me when I said the objective should be to create competitive districts; well, whether by design or by chance that is what the Commission has done. Now the important thing is to retain that political balance in the final maps, especially when the Commission comes under assault from bruised incumbents who don’t like their districts."
"Third, they did not engage in racial gerrymandering that I and many others had feared. These maps do increase electoral opportunities for Latinos and Asians, as they should given population growth over the decade. But the maps do not have weird gerrymanders of ethnic neighborhoods for partisan purposes, as was encouraged upon the Commission by some interest groups."
From the Bee's Dan Walters: "Were the maps to be adopted by the commission later in the summer and to survive legal challenges, they would create more "swing" districts – winnable by either major party – and probably result in more Latino and Asian American officeholders."
"While Democrats would no doubt remain in control of both legislative houses, whether they would achieve their long-sought goal of two-thirds majorities, thereby gaining power over taxes, would depend on how the parties adjust."
"An increase in swing districts would mean that right-wing Republicans and left-wing Democrats would no longer be assured of winning seats after nomination. The state's new "top-two" primary system would, at least in theory, also work against ideological rigidity. Together, they could create new and perhaps decisive blocs of moderates from both parties."
From the OC Register's Martin Wisckol: "An early draft of new congressional district boundaries does away with the Democratic Latino district now represented by Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Santa Ana, and puts Sanchez into a largely coastal, GOP-controlled district now largely represented by Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa."
"The draft also creates a heavily Asian district centered around Little Saigon."
'I’ve spoken with two people from the independent citizens commission drawing up the lines, and both emphasized that these district lines will undergo several rounds of revision."
“These are working maps,” said Jodie Filkins Webber, a commissioner and an attorney based in Orange."
From Jim Miller in the Press-Enterprise: "State Sen. Bill Emmerson, R-Hemet, said he believes the map includes his home in the San Diego-based district, which stretches from south of Riverside all the way to southeastern San Diego County. That seat also would include state Sen. Joel Anderson, R-Alpine, who was elected just last year."
"Other senators found more to like about the visualizations. State Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod, D-Chino, represents much of a proposed congressional seat that would include Chino, Ontario, Pomona and Rancho Cucamonga."
"According to an analysis by Redistricting Partners, the seat would be 43 percent Democratic registration and 34 percent Republican. Jerry Brown got 49 percent of the vote there in last year's governor's race, compared to Meg Whitman's 42 percent."
From the Bee's Jim Sanders and Kevin Yamamura: "Democrats hope the redistricting maps will help shake free the necessary Republican votes for a budget that relies on taxes to bridge the remaining $9.6 billion deficit."
"They suggest the maps could place key Republicans in more competitive districts and reduce the influence of anti-tax conservatives. At the least, the maps will provide more information about the makeup of future legislative districts after months of uncertainty."
"Of course it's affecting the budget process – to say otherwise is like denying that money affects the stock market," said Democratic strategist Jason Kinney. "Everyone knows what the (budget) end game is. But for folks putting up a tough vote, it's hard to do the political math with so many variables unknown."
Meanwhile, the FPPC rejected a request from Democrats that it investigate the love-child affair of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. The political watchdog said the Democrats' complaint didn't include specifics. The LA Times' Patrick McGreevy has the story.
"The state’s ethics agency has rejected a request by the Los Angeles County Democratic Party to investigate whether former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger violated any state laws during an affair with a housekeeper that resulted in his fathering a child."
"A complaint that did not allege any specific wrongdoing was filed with the state Fair Political Practices Commission, which enforces the state Political Reform Act regulating campaign finances."
"The Fair Political Practices Commission will not open an investigation into this matter," wrote Executive Director Roman Porter in a letter to party attorneys. "After review of your complaint, the information you provided is insufficient to establish a violation of the act."
Finally, from our "Be Careful, You May Get What You Wish For" file comes good news for those in Sacramento who are fed up with the cold weather. The bad news: Scientists say summers over the next few decades are going to be blisteringly hot. Since Sacramento summers already are blisteringly hot, this is not what we want to hear.
"The tropics and much of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience an irreversible rise in summer temperatures within the next 20 to 60 years if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, according to a new climate study by Stanford University scientists. The results will be published later this month in the journal Climatic Change."
"In the study, the Stanford team concluded that many tropical regions in Africa, Asia and South America could see "the permanent emergence of unprecedented summer heat" in the next two decades. Middle latitudes of Europe, China and North America – including the United States – are likely to undergo extreme summer temperature shifts within 60 years, the researchers found."
"According to our projections, large areas of the globe are likely to warm up so quickly that, by the middle of this century, even the coolest summers will be hotter than the hottest summers of the past 50 years," said the study's lead author, Noah Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science and fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford. The study is co-authored by Stanford research assistant Martin Scherer."
Global warming, baby....